Hurricane forecasters tracking 3 Atlantic disturbances; could they affect the U.S.?

As we approach the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, 205focus.com is keeping a close eye on the tropics. On Monday, forecasters were monitoring three separate disturbances churning across the Atlantic.

The season has remained relatively quiet since its June 1 start, yielding only two weak tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, both of which formed in the Gulf. Currently, the activity is focused much further out in the Atlantic.

Tracking the Disturbances

Of the three systems under observation, two show minimal signs of organization. The first is located several hundred miles east of the Carolinas. The National Hurricane Center estimates it has only a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression as it moves eastward, north of Bermuda, and away from the U.S. coast.

A second system is currently situated in the central tropical Atlantic, roughly halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa's west coast. While it may see some minor development this week as it tracks west, it is expected to face unfavorable conditions upon approaching the Caribbean, resulting in a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression.

The System to Watch

The third disturbance is the most significant, currently located in the eastern Atlantic, several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Forecasters expect this system to move westward and potentially merge with another tropical wave emerging from the African coast.

Conditions are expected to become more favorable for this system, giving it a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next seven days. While it should remain at sea initially, it is currently projected to move in the general direction of the Caribbean. At this stage, it is too early to determine if it will pose a direct threat to the United States, Puerto Rico, or the Virgin Islands.

Defining the Terms

For those tracking the classifications, a tropical depression features sustained winds up to 38 mph. Tropical storm status begins at 39 mph and extends to 73 mph, while hurricane-force winds reach 74 mph and above. The next name on the 2026 roster is Cristobal (pronounced krees-TOH-bahl).

Looking at the broader outlook, NOAA recently adjusted its 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast, calling for a season that finishes with fewer named storms than the historical average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.