Shock candidate now seen as favorite for 2028 Dem nomination

A stunning shift has occurred in the race for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with a surprise contender surging to the top of major betting leaderboards.

New Frontrunner Emerges

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has taken the lead as the favorite on two prominent legal gambling platforms as of Thursday. This unexpected climb presents a significant challenge to California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has long held the top spot on wagering sites.

The Betting Landscape

On Polymarket, 19% of bettors were backing Ocasio-Cortez on Thursday morning, placing her just ahead of Newsom at 17%. The momentum follows a strong showing on Wednesday night, when The Independent reported she held 21% of the market share. Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff rounds out the top three on the site at 15%, followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris at 7% and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 5%.

The trend is mirrored on the Kalshi wagering site, where Ocasio-Cortez leads with 18% compared to Newsom's 17%. Ossoff holds 13% on the platform, while Harris and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly sit at 9.5% and 5.6%, respectively.

Polling vs. Prediction Markets

While these betting markets show a clear appetite for a shift, the landscape remains different in conventional polling. According to The Independent, Harris maintains the lead in traditional polls, with Newsom in second and Ocasio-Cortez trailing in fourth place.

Despite the rising buzz surrounding her 2028 prospects, Ocasio-Cortez has not declared a candidacy. Highlighting recent primary successes for democratic socialists, the New York representative remains focused on the immediate future, telling The Independent, “I think my main focus is really genuinely just the midterms right now, and we have to make sure that we win this majority.”