Tripp Skipper: Wars don’t decide midterm elections. Gas prices do.

This is an opinion column

George H.W. Bush seemingly checked every box during his presidency. He built a powerhouse international coalition, secured a decisive victory in Operation Desert Storm in just over a month, and watched his approval rating soar past 90 percent. Yet, less than two years later, he found himself out of a job.

The lesson from that era, immortalized by James Carville, remains the golden rule of American politics: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Bush didn’t lose because voters doubted his military success; he lost because they grew weary of it. By Election Day, the public was laser-focused on their own kitchen-table issues—mortgage payments, rising living costs, and the struggle of the middle class.

The Trump Administration’s Strategic Crossroads

President Trump would be wise to heed this historical warning. While the strike on Iran was a necessary response to prevent them from obtaining a nuclear weapon, the administration stumbled in the aftermath. By pausing military operations early in an attempt to secure a deal, the White House surrendered crucial leverage. Today, instead of celebrating a secured Strait of Hormuz or calmed energy markets, the administration faces a cloud of uncertainty.

However, dwelling on yesterday's military decisions is a luxury politics rarely affords. With midterm elections rapidly approaching, the reality has shifted from the battlefield to the pocketbook.

Why Inflation Trumps Strategy

Voters are not grading the President on his military maneuvers; they are grading him every time they pull up to the gas pump, fill a grocery cart, or review their mounting credit card statements. Gas prices are trending upward and inflation is squeezing household budgets. No matter how significant the military conflict, it does not dictate the outcome of midterm elections—the economy does.

If Republicans cannot pivot their focus away from Iran and toward the economic pressures facing everyday families, they risk a major setback. An imperfect peace is now far more politically valuable than an endless foreign conflict. The strategic imperative for the President is to declare success, conclude the conflict, and shift his full attention to the economic health of the nation.

The Political Cost of Stagnation

The stakes couldn't be higher. Should Republicans lose the House, Hakeem Jeffries would become Speaker, effectively paralyzing the Trump administration’s legislative agenda under a barrage of investigations. Protecting a narrow political win at home is a higher priority than an incomplete military victory abroad.

President Trump has a fleeting window to avoid the same fate as his predecessors. He must recognize that while wars may dominate the headlines, it is the economy that ultimately decides the election. Focusing on the high cost of living is the only path to ensuring that Republicans maintain control of Congress.