Shock poll says Trump ally could be poised to turn deep-blue state red: ‘Already competitive’
Democratic incumbent is up by only 10 points.
Ryan Cooper 
A stunning new survey is turning heads in the political world, suggesting that a GOP ally of President Donald Trump may be closing the gap in a traditionally deep-blue state. A new poll from Siena College, as reported by the New York Post, indicates that Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman now sits within 10 points of Democratic incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul.
A Competitive Landscape
The survey of likely voters places Hochul at 49% compared to Blakeman’s 39%. While the incumbent holds the lead, the fact that she has not crossed the 50% threshold has caught the attention of experts. Siena pollster Steven Greenberg stated, “With less than three months till Election Day, Hochul holds a 10-point lead over Blakeman, 49-39%, not crossing the magic 50% mark,” adding, “The race is already competitive.”
Comparing the Field
Data analyzed by the Post suggests that Hochul’s lead is narrower than those held by other Democratic candidates on the ballot this fall. For comparison, the same survey shows Attorney General Letitia James leading her challenger, Saritha Komatireddy, by 18 points (54% to 36%), while State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli holds a 23-point advantage over Republican Joseph Hernandez (55% to 32%).
Blakeman’s current position also appears stronger than the standing of former GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin at this same juncture four years ago. In the 2022 general election, Hochul ultimately defeated Zeldin by a narrow six-point margin, 53% to 47%. Zeldin currently serves as the head of the EPA under the Trump administration.
Campaign Rhetoric and Policy Hurdles
The Hochul campaign has pushed back, with spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki highlighting the Governor’s track record on public safety and economic relief. Radulovacki framed the contrast between the candidates sharply, stating, “The difference in this race is crystal clear: Governor Hochul has put money back in New Yorkers’ pockets at every opportunity, invested billions in public safety, and stood up against Donald Trump’s endless attacks on this state.”
Despite the tightening race, the poll notes areas where Blakeman faces an uphill climb. On the issue of affordable housing, 51% of likely voters indicated they trust Hochul to do a better job, while only 35% favored Blakeman.
Editor's Note: This report was updated to incorporate comments provided by the Hochul campaign.
