New poll shows ‘rocky’ numbers for Republicans as Trump approval drops

As the midterm cycle intensifies, a recent NBC News poll released Sunday reveals a shifting landscape. Democrats have managed to secure a slight edge in voter preference for congressional control, while President Donald Trump is grappling with a notable slide in his approval ratings.

A Competitive Legislative Outlook

According to the survey, 49 percent of registered voters currently favor Democratic control of Congress, outperforming the 44 percent who prefer Republicans. Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who partnered with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt on the project, described the current figures as “rocky numbers for Republicans, but they are not catastrophic.” McInturff noted that at this same juncture in 2018, Democrats held a 10-point lead during the cycle that ultimately produced a “blue wave.”

The Democratic advantage is buoyed by a 12-point lead among independent voters, alongside strong support from Black and Latino voters, college graduates, and voters under 50. Conversely, Republicans maintain an edge among men, white voters, and those without college degrees. Currently, Democrats are aiming to pick up three net seats to flip the House, though their path in the Senate remains uphill; they need to gain four seats in states that Trump won by double digits in 2024.

Trump’s Declining Approval

The President’s standing has hit a difficult patch, with his approval among registered voters dipping to 42 percent—a level not seen since July 2020. Among all adults, that approval rating is even lower at 39 percent. As 205focus.com has previously noted, Trump continues to poll as the most unpopular president in modern American history.

Disapproval is particularly intense among independents, with two-thirds expressing dissatisfaction. Youth voters aged 18 to 29 show a 77 percent disapproval rate, and 64 percent of Latino voters hold a similar view. Furthermore, internal support is wavering; GOP approval of the President dropped from 88 percent in March to 82 percent, with Horwitt pointing to “cracks in the GOP base” as only 90 percent of Trump voters currently prioritize Republican control of Congress.

Pessimism Defines the Voter Mood

Beyond partisan politics, the survey highlights a deep-seated national gloom. For the fourth NBC News survey in a row, 56 percent of voters believe America’s best days are in the past. Additionally, nearly 80 percent of respondents feel the American Dream has become harder to achieve compared to the previous generation. Confidence in institutions remains low, with half of all voters expressing little to no faith in the federal government and 58 percent reporting similar doubts regarding Congress.

The poll, sponsored by the nonpartisan nonprofit More Perfect, gathered data from 2,400 registered voters between May 29 and June 7 via telephone and online text surveys, carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.