Tripp Skipper: Wars don’t decide midterm elections. Gas prices do.

This is an opinion column

George H.W. Bush once possessed a political approval rating north of 90 percent, buoyed by the decisive victory of Operation Desert Storm. Yet, just 20 months later, he was out of office. The lesson of his defeat remains etched in American political history: voters often lose interest in foreign policy wins when their household bottom line starts to suffer.

The Economy is the Ultimate Arbiter

James Carville captured this reality with four iconic words: "It’s the economy, stupid." It is a warning President Trump would be wise to heed as we approach the upcoming midterm elections.

While many supported the president’s move to strike Iran—arguing that preventing a nuclear-armed Tehran was a necessity—the administration hit a snag in its post-strike strategy. By hitting the pause button on the military campaign to pursue a deal, the White House inadvertently surrendered leverage at a critical juncture. Had the pressure remained, the Strait of Hormuz might be secure, energy markets more stable, and the administration celebrating a clear victory rather than navigating current uncertainty.

Midterms Defined by the Pump and Pantry

We are now only months away from an election that will not be decided by military maneuvers, but by the daily stresses of inflation and rising gas prices. Americans are not grading the administration on strategic nuance; they are grading it every time they scan their credit card statement or pay at the pump.

Voters historically judge the party in power through the lens of their own wallets. If daily life feels increasingly unaffordable, they look to Washington for someone to hold accountable. For the Republican Party, an imperfect peace is now far more politically sustainable than the prospect of an endless, costly conflict.

The High Stakes of Congressional Control

The goal now must be to declare success and pivot toward the kitchen-table issues that will determine which party holds the House. A loss of control would be a massive strategic defeat, ushering in Speaker Hakeem Jeffries and signaling two years of legislative gridlock and partisan investigations that would stifle the president’s agenda.

George H.W. Bush fell because he overestimated the political weight of his military triumph compared to the weight of economic anxiety. President Trump has the opportunity to avoid that same trap. While wars may dominate the nightly news cycles, history shows that the economy remains the final, decisive judge at the ballot box.