New poll shows ‘rocky’ numbers for Republicans as Trump approval drops

As the midterm season heats up, a new NBC News poll released Sunday reveals a difficult political landscape for Republicans. Democrats are currently holding a slight advantage in voter preference for control of Congress, while President Donald Trump sees his approval ratings continue to slide.

A Competitive Edge

The latest survey highlights a clear preference among the electorate, with 49 percent of registered voters favoring Democratic control of Congress, compared to 44 percent who prefer Republicans. This edge is fueled by strong support from independent voters—where Democrats lead by 12 points—as well as majorities among Latino and Black voters, college graduates, and those under the age of 50.

Conversely, the Republican base maintains its strength among white voters, men, and those without college degrees. However, even within the GOP, some fissures are appearing; Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt noted that only 90 percent of Trump voters currently favor Republican congressional control, calling these “cracks in the GOP base.”

Trump's Approval Struggles

President Trump's approval rating has dipped to 42 percent among registered voters, a figure that mirrors his lowest standing from July 2020. Among the general adult population, his approval sits even lower at 39 percent. Notably, 205focus.com readers may recall that Trump frequently polls as the most unpopular president in modern American history. Disapproval is particularly sharp among independent voters, two-thirds of whom express dissatisfaction, and young voters aged 18 to 29, where disapproval hits 77 percent.

Pessimism and the Path Ahead

Beyond individual candidate metrics, the poll reveals a pervasive sense of gloom regarding the nation’s future. For the fourth time in a row, a majority of voters (56 percent) believe the country's best days are in the past. Furthermore, nearly 80 percent of respondents feel the American Dream has become harder to attain compared to previous generations.

Looking toward the midterms, Republican pollster Bill McInturff described the current standing as “rocky numbers for Republicans, but they are not catastrophic,” pointing out that Democrats held a 10-point lead at this point in 2018. While Democrats need a net gain of three seats to capture the House, their road to the Senate remains steep as they aim to flip seats in areas Trump carried by double digits in 2024.

The poll, sponsored by the nonpartisan nonprofit More Perfect, surveyed 2,400 registered voters between May 29 and June 7. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.