Trump-backed Alabama Senate candidate’s odds drop as prediction market bettors pour money into race
More than $460,000 has been bet on the runoff in the last two weeks. Almost $2 million has been wagered collectively.
Ryan Cooper 
The race for Alabama's open U.S. Senate seat is tightening as prediction markets show a significant shift in momentum. With the Republican primary runoff just four days away on June 16, bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket are rapidly adjusting their outlooks, causing the odds for former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson to climb while support for Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore slips.
Market Shifts and Betting Volume
Since May 30, more than $460,000 has been wagered on the contest between Moore, a congressman representing the Wiregrass region, and Hudson, who is well-known in conservative podcast circles. In total, nearly $2 million has been committed to the race across both platforms.
On Kalshi, Hudson's path to victory has gained traction, with his chances rising to approximately 21%. Just weeks earlier, on May 30, he was given a mere 9% chance of defeating Moore. Conversely, Moore’s Kalshi standing has dipped from 91% to 79% as of Friday afternoon.
Polymarket reflects a similar trend, with Moore dropping from 93% to 77% during the same period, while Hudson’s odds have increased from 8% to 22%.
Runoff Tensions Rise
The final stretch of the campaign has turned increasingly contentious. While both candidates have served in the military, Hudson has publicly accused his opponent of being dishonest about his service record. In response, Moore has filed a federal complaint with the Federal Election Commission against several social media accounts that have amplified these questions.
President Donald Trump stepped in to bolster Moore during a Thursday night telerally. Over seven minutes, Trump praised Moore's record and commitment to the state, while also reaffirming his endorsements for lieutenant governor candidate John Wahl and gubernatorial candidate Tommy Tuberville.
