Alabama faces ‘catastrophic’ flood threat today: Arthur could bring 15 inches of rain

Alabama is bracing for a significant weather event as the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur churn through the state, bringing a high risk of life-threatening flash flooding through Friday.

Catastrophic Flood Potential

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a stern warning for coastal Alabama, southeast Mississippi, and the far western Florida Panhandle. Forecasters describe the situation as a particularly dangerous flash flood threat, with rainfall totals expected to reach 10 to 15 inches in parts of southwest Alabama through Saturday evening. Other regions in the southern portion of the state should anticipate 6 to 8 inches of accumulation.

Flood watches are currently in effect across all of south Alabama and most of central Alabama as the region faces this excessive rainfall.

Severe Weather and Tornado Risk

Beyond the flooding, the state is dealing with severe storm potential. A Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather covers the southern part of Alabama today, with a Level 1 risk extending across the remainder of the state. Storms could produce wind gusts reaching up to 60 mph, with potential for isolated tornadoes embedded in tropical rain bands.

A tornado watch is active until 5 p.m. Thursday for the following counties: Baldwin, Butler, Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Dallas, Escambia, Greene, Hale, Lowndes, Marengo, Mobile, Monroe, Perry, Sumter, Washington, and Wilcox. According to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, wind gusts up to 70 mph and several tornadoes are possible within the watch area.

Looking Ahead to Friday and the Weekend

The instability is expected to persist into Friday as a frontal boundary drifts into the region. A Level 1 severe weather risk is in place for areas stretching from the Birmingham vicinity down to the coast. This front is projected to stall over central Alabama throughout the weekend, likely sustaining increased rain chances through Sunday.

The Origin of the System

Today's volatile conditions are driven by the remains of Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. After moving inland over east Texas late Wednesday and dissipating, the lopsided system pushed its most intense weather well to the east of its center, directly impacting Alabama. The National Hurricane Center has since issued its final advisory on the system.