Trump-backed Alabama Senate candidate’s odds drop as prediction market bettors pour money into race
More than $460,000 has been bet on the runoff in the last two weeks. Almost $2 million has been wagered collectively.
Mason Reed 
As the June 16 Republican primary runoff approaches, prediction markets are witnessing a surge of activity surrounding Alabama’s U.S. Senate race. Betting volume on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket has intensified significantly, with bettors shifting their outlook on the contest between Rep. Barry Moore and challenger Jared Hudson.
Market Shifts and Betting Volume
In the last two weeks alone, roughly $460,000 has been wagered on the race, bringing the total collective handle on the contest to nearly $2 million. This influx of capital has coincided with a notable shift in the odds for the former Navy SEAL.
Back on May 30, Hudson was viewed as a major underdog, with Kalshi assigning him just a 9% chance of defeating Trump-backed Rep. Barry Moore. With only four days remaining until the vote, that outlook has shifted, as Hudson now holds a 21% chance of victory according to the same platform. Consequently, Moore’s odds have declined, dropping from 91% on May 30 to 79% as of Friday afternoon.
A similar trend is playing out on Polymarket, where Moore’s probability of winning has slipped from 93% on May 30 to 77% as of Friday afternoon. In that same window, Hudson’s odds improved from 8% to 22%.
Tensions Rise Ahead of Runoff
The race between Moore, a congressman representing the Wiregrass region, and Hudson, who has built a following on the conservative podcast circuit, has become increasingly contentious. The conflict has centered partly on military service records, with both candidates having served in the military.
Hudson alleged in a June 9 campaign email that Moore has been misrepresenting his record to voters. In response, Moore has filed a federal complaint with the Federal Election Commission targeting social media accounts that questioned his service history.
President Donald Trump continues to signal his support for Moore, hosting a telerally on Thursday night to bolster his preferred candidate. During the seven-minute pitch, the former president highlighted Moore's support for his agenda. During the same call, Trump also expressed his support for gubernatorial candidate Tommy Tuberville and lieutenant governor candidate John Wahl.
