A staggering amount of money is being bet on Alabama US Senate race prediction markets

With independent polling scarce in Alabama’s U.S. Senate GOP primary, observers are looking toward a different indicator to gauge the momentum of the race: the money flowing into prediction markets.

High Stakes in the GOP Runoff

Nearly $1.5 million has been wagered on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket regarding the June 16 GOP runoff. The contest pits Trump-endorsed Congressman Barry Moore against former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson, with both campaigns aiming for a seat left vacant by Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s gubernatorial run.

The total volume, accumulated since mid-August on Kalshi and mid-November on Polymarket, highlights significant interest in a race where the winner will be heavily favored to prevail in November’s general election against the victor of the Democratic runoff between Everett Wess and Dakarai Larriett.

Navigating Regulations

While traditional gambling remains largely prohibited in Alabama, prediction platforms operate under different rules. According to the Associated Press, these markets characterize their activity as forecasting outcomes rather than placing bets. Because they are overseen by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission, they bypass many state-level restrictions typically applied to sports betting.

Moore Leads in Market Outlook

Despite conflicting internal polls—one Moore-aligned survey showing a 16-point lead and a poll from the Alabama Conservatives PAC showing a much tighter race—the prediction markets view Moore as the clear frontrunner.

On Kalshi, where over $1.1 million has been traded, Moore holds a 91% probability of victory. Polymarket mirrors this sentiment with Moore at 93% and more than $340,000 in volume. For comparison, interest in the Alabama gubernatorial race remains significantly lower, with only $16,000 wagered on the outcome between Tommy Tuberville and Doug Jones.

The Associated Press contributed to this 205focus.com report.