Hurricane forecasters keeping an eye on the Gulf this weekend

Hurricane forecasters are keeping a close watch on the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. According to the National Hurricane Center, meteorologists are tracking a large system of showers and thunderstorms currently lingering over the eastern Gulf. This activity is tied to a surface trough and an upper-level low, prompting experts to monitor the potential for gradual development as the system drifts northward.

Increased Development Odds

As of Friday afternoon, the chance of a tropical depression forming from this system has ticked upward from 20 percent to 30 percent. While conditions across the Gulf are largely unfavorable for significant development, forecasters at 205focus.com note that the system remains a point of interest due to the heavy tropical downpours it is expected to generate along the Florida west coast and throughout the peninsula.

Impact on Alabama and Beyond

The National Weather Service in Mobile is tracking the moisture associated with this system. Residents in southern Alabama could see an uptick in humidity and increased chances for scattered afternoon showers and storms through the weekend. Fortunately, the weather service does not anticipate significant disruption to the Gulf waters, maintaining a low risk for rip currents along the beaches of Alabama and northwest Florida.

A Quiet 2026 Season

Elsewhere, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave in the distant eastern Atlantic, though it poses no threat to the United States and holds only a 10 percent chance of development over the next week. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has remained relatively calm thus far, with Tropical Storm Arthur serving as the only named storm since June. NOAA continues to project a below-average season for the Atlantic Basin, which remains active through the official conclusion on Nov. 30.