How abundant is this popular Gulf game fish? Scientists have a new amberjack estimate.

A major new scientific study has shed fresh light on the Gulf of Mexico's greater amberjack population, suggesting there are far more of these prized game fish swimming in our waters than previous federal models estimated. However, anglers hoping for an immediate relaxation of harvest rules might need to temper their expectations.

Bridging the Gap Between Science and the Water

The Greater Amberjack Count, a comprehensive research project launched in 2020, was designed to resolve a long-standing tension between federal data and the experiences of local fishermen. While federal assessments repeatedly characterized the amberjack as overfished, resulting in strict seasonal and bag limits, many anglers consistently reported robust numbers on the water.

Led by Sean Powers, director of the Stokes School of Marine Environmental Sciences at the University of South Alabama, the effort brought together 20 scientists from more than a dozen institutions. Backed by nearly $12 million in funding, the team aimed to move beyond traditional harvest-dependent models by utilizing underwater cameras and hydroacoustic technology to count fish directly in their habitats.

The Findings: A Significant Increase

The results paint a stark contrast to previous federal assessments. While the 2020 federal assessment, known as SEDAR 70, estimated approximately 1.39 million mature amberjack in the Gulf, the new survey suggests the actual number is closer to 4.3 million.

Powers emphasizes that these findings challenge the narrative that the stock has been severely depleted for two decades. "If the stock was in that bad of condition for that long, we would have crashed the stock," Powers said, noting that even with scientific margins of error, the data points toward a significantly healthier population than previously assumed.

What Happens Next?

Despite the optimistic numbers, the path to changing fishing regulations is far from straightforward. Similar to the Great Red Snapper Count, which found higher abundance than predicted, the results of this study face complex hurdles before they can influence policy. Experience shows these findings often have limited impact on immediate management shifts.

Currently, the management landscape remains tight. In February, NOAA Fisheries reduced commercial harvest limits for 2026. Furthermore, the 2026 federal recreational season is set for Sept. 1 to Oct. 14, with a one-fish-per-day limit and a 34-inch minimum fork length.

Kevin Anson, director of the Marine Resources Division of the Alabama Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, noted that the data is now under review by the Gulf Council's Science and Statistical Committee. "It was a snapshot of what the population of amberjack is in the Gulf," Anson explained. "How and where that study and the results of the study can be used in the assessment is really kind of a big question."

Looking Ahead

While a sudden change in policy is unlikely, the scientific community is optimistic about integrating this new data into future assessments. Powers and his team hope to refine these methods further, noting that better mapping of the Gulf’s bottom habitat will be key to improving future counts. For those interested in the full scope of the research, the data is available at gulfseagrant.org.