Low voter turnout expected as poll shows tight race for one of Alabama’s highest offices

The race for the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor remains locked in a high-stakes battle between Secretary of State Wes Allen and former GOP state chairman John Wahl. As the state heads toward the runoff, 205focus.com is tracking the latest data from The Alabama Poll, which highlights just how tight the contest has become.

A Statistical Dead Heat

Conducted by Michael Lowry on May 28, the survey polled 600 likely Republican runoff voters. While Allen holds a slight lead in the overall headline numbers—garnering 41.9% compared to Wahl’s 38.4%—the pool of undecided voters sits at 19.6%, leaving significant room for movement before voters head to the polls on June 16.

However, the internal data suggests a different story among the most dedicated participants. Among respondents identified as high-propensity voters—those who rarely miss an election—Wahl holds an advantage, leading 42.5% to 40%.

The Battle of Turnout

“This is the race I’d watch closest,” Lowry stated in a release. He emphasized that in a low-turnout June primary, the final outcome will likely hinge on which candidate can effectively mobilize their base. “Wes Allen leads the headline number, but a runoff isn’t decided by everyone — it’s decided by the people who actually show up.”

The poll, which carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4%, arrives as both candidates push for the nomination. Wahl, who carries an endorsement from President Trump, previously led the May 19 primary with 41% of the vote, while Allen secured 38%. The candidates' campaigns have been increasingly aggressive as the runoff date approaches.

The successful Republican nominee will go on to challenge state Rep. Phillip Ensler of Montgomery, the Democratic nominee, in the general election on November 3.