Could there be a tropical storm in the Gulf? Will it affect Alabama?
The system is expected to bring a lot of rain with it to parts of the South.
Ethan Parker 
The probability of a tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico has ticked upward, keeping forecasters on high alert as the region prepares for a potentially wet week ahead. While the National Hurricane Center is currently tracking a low-pressure system near south Texas, tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued as early as today for sections of the U.S. Gulf Coast.
System Outlook and Potential Impact
As of Tuesday, the system sits near south Texas with a limited window to intensify into 2026’s first named storm. The National Hurricane Center estimates a 60 percent chance—up from 50 percent on Monday—that the system will develop into a brief, weak tropical storm once it moves over the open water of the Gulf later today. Should it reach sustained winds of 39 mph with a defined circulation, it will be named Arthur.
Regardless of whether it achieves formal tropical storm status, the system poses a significant threat of heavy rain. While the storm is not projected to make landfall in Alabama, it will pull tropical moisture northward into the state. This influx is expected to elevate rain chances and increase the risk of flash flooding and severe storms throughout Alabama from now through Thursday. The National Weather Service warns that some areas could see up to 7 inches of rain or more over the next week. You can track the latest updates on these expected severe storms and rainfall here.
Regional Readiness
The National Hurricane Center has advised that residents across southern and eastern Texas, as well as portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, should prepare for periods of intense rainfall. This weather event carries the potential for life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding, alongside coastal flooding and gusty winds along the Texas and Louisiana shorelines.
Outside of this system, there are no other areas of concern in the Caribbean, Gulf, or tropical Atlantic. As we move through the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, it is worth noting that NOAA anticipates a quieter season overall compared to the average of 14 named storms. As always, keep your eyes on 205focus.com for the latest weather developments.
