2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast released: How many storms does NOAA expect?

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is officially just 11 days away, with the start date set for June 1. As residents along the Gulf Coast prepare, there is a glimmer of hope for a quieter year, though experts warn that nothing is guaranteed.

A Favorable Outlook?

NOAA released its 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook this Thursday, offering a refreshing forecast: forecasters are predicting fewer named storms compared to a typical season. Data indicates a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, compared to a 35 percent chance for a near-normal season and only a 10 percent chance for an above-normal output.

For context, an average season usually churns out 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Colorado State University has also released its own bellwether forecast, which similarly points toward a lower-than-average frequency of activity. If this trend holds, it would mark the first below-average season since 2015, which saw 12 named storms and four hurricanes.

The El Nino Factor

The primary driver behind this outlook is the potential arrival of El Nino. This climate phenomenon, characterized by warmer-than-average waters in the tropical Pacific, typically triggers increased wind shear across the Atlantic. This extra wind shear acts as a hurdle, often preventing tropical systems from developing or reaching full strength.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center currently has an “El Nino” watch in effect, with a high probability of the pattern taking hold over the summer and lasting through November 30. While some discussions have turned to the potential for a “super El Nino,” the Climate Prediction Center maintains that there is still substantial uncertainty regarding the peak strength of the event.

Stay Prepared Regardless

Despite the optimistic shift in projections, meteorologists are doubling down on the mantra that “it only takes one” storm to cause significant destruction. The National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center are integrating advanced technology this season, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data, to bolster their forecasting accuracy.

“Although El Nino’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”