Alabama faces ‘catastrophic’ flood threat today: Arthur could bring 15 inches of rain

Alabama is bracing for a significant weather event as the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur churn through the state, bringing a high risk of life-threatening flash flooding and severe storms today and into Friday.

Catastrophic Flood Risk

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a stern warning for coastal areas, identifying a rare high risk for excessive rainfall. Forecasters are predicting rainfall totals between 10 and 15 inches for parts of southwest Alabama through Saturday evening. In their official forecast discussion, the service noted, "A particularly dangerous and life-threatening flash flood situation exists across the area... Considerable flash flooding is likely and catastrophic flash flooding is possible today."

Meanwhile, the remainder of southern Alabama should prepare for 6 to 8 inches of rain through Saturday, with lighter accumulations expected across the northern regions. Residents are encouraged to monitor flood watches currently in effect for all of south Alabama and the majority of central Alabama.

Severe Weather and Tornado Threat

In addition to heavy rain, the southern portion of the state is under a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather today, while the rest of Alabama faces a Level 1 risk. Storms are expected to pack wind gusts up to 60 mph. Furthermore, the tropical environment is ripe for the development of tornadoes.

A tornado watch is active until 5 p.m. Thursday for several Alabama counties, including Baldwin, Butler, Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Dallas, Escambia, Greene, Hale, Lowndes, Marengo, Mobile, Monroe, Perry, Sumter, Washington, and Wilcox. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center reports that "several tornadoes" are likely in the watch area, with wind gusts potentially reaching 70 mph.

Looking Ahead to Friday

The instability is expected to persist through Friday as a frontal boundary moves into the region and stalls. A Level 1 severe weather risk remains in place from the Birmingham area down to the coast. Storms will likely ramp up Friday afternoon and linger into the evening. Forecasters expect this boundary to remain over the midsection of the state throughout the weekend, keeping rain chances elevated for Saturday and Sunday.

The Legacy of Arthur

The current volatility is fueled by what remains of Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. After moving inland through east Texas on Wednesday, the system dissipated. Because Arthur was a lopsided system with the most intense weather displaced from its center, Alabama is feeling the brunt of the storm's eastern activity today. The National Hurricane Center has released its final advisory on the system.